Winter Timeline 2023/24

Predictions for the passing winter varied greatly since late summer of 2023, due to unknown impact of El Nino, bringing both negative and positive anomalies in Europe. The consensus above forecasters was probably that Poland would experience both spells of warmth and cold snaps, but all in all the winter will be normal both in terms of temperature and snowfall.

The winter was preceded by a record-warm autumn, actually the warmest since records began.

First ground frosts were observed in Warsaw on 9 October 2023 and 10 October 2023 (temperature 2 metres above ground declined only to +0.5C). In most places in Poland first frosts were reported, while hilly southern regions were covered by a thin and quickly-melting blanket of snow. The first frost was measured on 18 October 2023, exactly in line with 1991-2020 average and its incidence was the earliest since 2016.

17 November 2023
The winter timeline is initiated exactly on the same day as in 2018 and 2022.
Flurry begins in the afternoon, by late evening some of the snow lingers, despite temperature just above 0C.

18 November 2023 – 19 November 2023
Intense snow showers on and off. The white powder is heavy and melts slower than it falls. Temperature gently above freezing most of the time.

20 November 2023
It thaws out; snows melt. Drizzle and fog make the day abhorrently dark.

21 November 2023
The day starts with a freezing drizzle, which later turns into snow. No warmer than –1C. Slippery as hell.

22 November 2023

The morning is the coldest since many months, with a low of –6C at dawn. Clear, blue skies, chilly wind and day-time high of 0C.

23 November 2023
From –3C and freezing rain in the morning, to +8C, gusty wind and rain pouring sideways in the evening. Autumn is back, but not for long.

24 November 2023
From +3C in the morning to light frost in the evening. Gusty wind does not ease off.

25 November 2023 – 26 November 2023
Light winter with temperature between –2C and +1C, intermittent snow showers and some spells of sunshine.

27 November 2023 – 29 November 2023
Below freezing all the time, with very little supplies of fresh snow. Horribly chilly, but with some sunny moments.

30 November 2023
Out of the blue comes the morning snow and a short thaw in the afternoon. The air is wet. Wind chill close to –10C.

November 2023 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.9C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). Stats:
- month-time high: +14.3C on 2 November 2023,
- month-time low: –6.8C on 30 November 2023,
- the warmest day: 3 November 2023 (daily average of +12.0C):
- the coldest day: 29 November 2023 (daily average of –3.8C)
- number of days with snow cover: 11 (the highest since 1998),
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 18 November 2023.

 

1 December 2023 – 2 December 2023
Gloomy, freezing fog, chilly. Looks like autumn, feels like winter.

3 December 2023 – 4 December 2023
A little bit brighter and some snow has fallen, the cover is too thin to cause any disruptions, but thick enough to change the landscapes in the capital to white.

5 December 2023
One sunny, bright day, but still below freezing.

6 December 2023 – 10 December 2023
Below zero, not much, but all the time, cloudy, with occasional, yet at times intense flurry.

11 December 2023
The rain washes away three inches of snow within less than 24 hours. Gone is the winter scenery.

12 December 2023 – 14 December 2023
The ugliest type of Polish late autumn / pre-winter returns – barely above 0C, damp air, occasional drizzle or rain, fogs and not a spell of sunshine.

15 December 2023
A tiny spell of winter – just barely above freezing, snow showers, with white powder melting nearly instantly. I appreciate a few moments of sunshine.

16 December 2023 – 21 December 2023
All in all, late autumn continues, with no incidence of frost (temperatures ranging from +2C to +8C), overcast skies, frequent drizzle and intensifying wind.

22 December 2023
Zoltan winter storm brings howling chilly winds, some sunshine and a blizzard which hits Warsaw shortly before noon, brings a sudden temperature drop below freezing and some 3 centimetres of fresh, wet snow, which begins to melt soon. Temperature mostly barely above zero, but feels like –10C.

23 December 2023 – 24 December 2023
Chilly, windy, close to zero, some sunshine, some snow showers, but with a white layer not lingering for long.

25 December 2023 – 26 December 2023
Much warmer – day-time highs above +10C, windy, with frequent intense (rain) showers.

27 December 2023 – 31 December 2023
Late autumn continues. Days are brighter, precipitation rare, temperature, with exception of one night-time incidence of frost, remains single-digit positive.

December 2023 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.1C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). Stats:.
- month-time high: +10.4C on 25 December 2023 (just like nearly every second year, on Christmas rather than at the beginning of the month),
- month-time low: –8.7C on 5 December 2023,
- the warmest day 25 December 2023 (daily average of +8.3C),
- the coldest day: 5 December 2023 (daily average of – 5.6C),
- number of days with snow cover: 11,
- the highest snow depth: 8 centimetres on 10 December 2023.

 

1 January 2024 – 4 January 2024
The last days of late autumn. Temperature between +2C and +8C, lots of rain showers or drizzle, not a spell of sunshine.

5 January 2024
Still dark and ugly, but the temperature turns negative.

6 January 2024
Some snow fell overnight, then some snow showers topped up the layer of white duvet during the day. At least the ground gets some cover before hard frosts.

7 January 2024
Getting lousily colder, temperature close to double-digit frost.

8 January 2024 – 10 January 2024
Bitterly cold, the coldest since January 2021 actually. Well below –10C most of the time, wind chill approaching –20C, but skies are clear blue. Long longed-for sunshine in abundance.

11 January 2024 – 13 January 2024
Mild winter, with some snow showers, grey skies most of the time and temperature fluctuating between –8C and +1C.

14 January 2024
Now a mild thaw with some snow showers.

15 January 2024
Close to the point of freezing. In the evening Warsaw is it by a snow storm. Roads and pavements are icy afterwards.

16 January 2024 – 17 January 2024
Glorious sunshine is back, with double-digit frost at night in between the two days being the price to pay. A major thaw is on the horizon.

18 January 2024 – 21 January 2024
The last (for a while) gasps of mild winter. Frosty most of the time, but with day-time highs barely above 0C, with intermittent intense deliveries of fresh snow.

22 January 2024 – 25 January 2024
The thaw is on, right away in overdrive, with sunshine and then abundant rainfall accelerating the pace at which snow disappears.

26 January 2024 – 28 January 2024
Cooler (closer to 0C), with no sunshine, but intermittent sleet or snow.

29 January 2024 – 31 January 2024
The first intimation of pre-spring, with lots of sunshine, day-time highs in excess of +7C, but also morning frosts.

January 2024 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was –0.2C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). Stats:
- month-time high: +8.9C on 3 January 2024,
- month-time low: –15.1C on 9 January 2024,
- the warmest day: 4 January 2024 (daily average of +6.0C),
- the coldest day: 8 January 2024 (daily average of – 11.4C),
- number of days with snow cover: 19,
- the highest snow depth: 12 centimetres on 21 January 2024.

 

1 February 2024 – 6 February 2024
The weather resembles late March and is anything, but winter-like. Temperature between +3C and +10C, windy as hell and more rainy than sunny.

7 February 2024 – 9 February 2024
A short near-winter episode, with temperatures barely above zero and light snow (which disappears quickly).

10 February 2024 – 15 February 2024
Spring is in the air. Again, much warmer, up to low double digits, much less rain, the wind eases off.

16 February 2024 – 17 February 2024
The first proper assault of spring weather, with full sunshine on the former day and some bits of rain on the latter. Day-time highs well above +10C.

18 February 2024 – 21 February 2024
Somewhat colder, with single-digit temperature. Only the first day of the period brings clement weather, then rain prevails.

22 February 2024 – 24 February 2024
A veritable spring nears. Currently temperatures top gently above +10C, skies are overcast, rain showers come and go.

25 February 2024 – 27 February 2024
Spring explodes in full sunshine, with early afternoons bringing temperatures close to +15C (yet not record-setting).

28 February 2024 – 29 February 2024
Spring retracts a little, not as warm as in recent days, yet a whole lot warmer than it should be at this time of year, rainy.

February 2024 was the warmest since records began. Average temperature in Warsaw was +6.2C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C and the warmest until now February 1990 when temperature averaged out +4.7C). Stats:
- month-time high: +16.5C on 27 February 2024 (1.8 Celsius degrees cooler than on 25 February 2021),
- month-time low: –1.4C on 14 February 2024 (beating the previous record of the highest minimum temperature of –3.9C in February set in February 2020),
- the warmest day: 27 February 2024 (daily average of +11.1C, typical for last decade of April),
- the coldest day: 8 February 2024 (daily average of +0.4C, beating the previous record of the highest minimum average of –0.4C set on 7 February 2020, in other words this was the first February in Warsaw with no day with negative average temperature),
- number of days with snow cover: 0,
- the highest snow depth: not applicable, although we had a few snowflakes on the ground for an hour or two on 9 February 2024.

 

1 March 2024 – 3 March 2024
Was supposed to be sunny and warm, but clouds refused to roll away and temperature has barely exceeded +10C (vs. forecasts of +15C or more).

4 March 2024 – 6 March 2024
No longer with double digits, with inadequate supply of sunshine and spells of rain. The weather slowly drifts to how it should be at this time of year.

7 March 2024 – 10 March 2024
Sunshine is back. High daily temperature fluctuations, from the coldest mornings since the third decade of January to upper single digits or low double-digits in the afternoons.

11 March 2024 – 13 March 2024
Somewhat colder, yet above zero all the time, with abundant rainfall.

14 March 2024 – 16 March 2024
More sunshine, day-time highs above +10C, but the short spell of spring weather is chased away by a cold front, preceded by first spring thunderstorm.

17 March 2024
Colder, cloudier, feels like autumn for a while.

18 March 2024
Wake up to behold a light dusting of snow on cars and lawns. In snows on and off until evening, at times intensely. In the morning the snow cover lingers for two of three hours, then it melts.

19 March 2024 – 20 March 2024
The weather returns to pre-spring mode, with single-digit temperatures, ground frosts in the morning and overcast skies most of the time.

21 March 2024 – 26 March 2024
Very changeable weather, with temperature swings from –1C to +17C, frequent rain showers, one thunderstorm, bits of sunshine and some light morning frost. Conceivably, the record-early last frost could have been reported in Warsaw on 26 March (beating the previous record set on 2 April 2016).

27 March 2024 – 29 March 2024
Warmer, day-time highs of more than +15C. Had my tyres (in the old Megane) changed on 28 March 2024, which was the earliest tyre change I ever had, after 3 years of getting this done in the second decade of April.

30 March 2024
Early summer rather than early spring. Heat record for March is broken, namely +22.9C measured on 21 March 1974 is beaten with +24.4C.

31 March 2024
The record set yesterday does not last long, for the first time in history temperature in March in Warsaw exceeded +25C.

March 2024 was extremely warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +7.0C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C, at the par with March 2014, but colder than in March 2007, when temperature averaged out +7.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +25.3C on 31 March 2024,
- month-time low: –4.1C on 8 March 2024,
- the warmest day: 31 March 2024 (daily average of +18.6C, the warmest March day ever),
- the coldest day: 18 March 2024 (daily average of +1.0C),
- number of days with snow cover: 1,
- the highest snow depth: less than 1 centimetre on 18 March 2024.

Off to Kraków next weekend, so the next post in two weeks.

Skoda Octavia IV estate - in my garage

When ordering the car in January, I was told the queue for manufacturing slots ends in the 26th week of year and I should have braced myself for delivery in late July or early August. This was not an issue for me, since the Megane has served me well and the new car would have an even longer lifetime. In late January it turned out the vehicle had its manufacturing slot booked for the 9th week of the year. It arrived from the factory quite fast, also my lessor handled all registration-related formalities without further ado and hence the car was ready to be picked up on 19 March.

As the only Skoda dealer in Poland co-operating with my employer is based in Poznań, I had to take a day-long trip there and due to work-related constraints I ventured there on Monday, 25 March.

I was positively surprised by how cheap the train to Poznań was, since from times I travelled there often in business, a single ticket cost my employer around PLN 150. My second-class Intercity ticket bought six days in advance set me back only PLN 58.65. Given the journey duration of 2 hours and 50 minutes (and running punctually like a clockwork), this finally makes a tempting proposal.

I got to the dealership by public transport (35 minutes from Poznań Główny station to the outskirts of Komorniki seems a decent result). An hour later I was at the nearby petrol station filling up the car. I returned to Warsaw via old DK92 national road up to Konin, with a lunch stopover in Września, then headed for A2 motorway.

First driving impression - I am positively surprised by the fuel consumption, especially since the engine is not run in yet. The average consumption on my way from Poznań to Warsaw according to the car's computer was... mere 4.8 litres per 100 km. I drove moderately dynamically outside town and set tempomat at 105 kmph at motorway. The outcome gives hopes for low appetite for petrol in out-of-town trips once the mileage hits 5 digits.

Second driving impression - this vehicle is a tablet on wheels. I am overwhelmed by plenty of electronics out there and still find my way around the link between the car and my smartphone. Though must I say the user's guide in concise and written in plain Polish.

Third impression - can say little of how dynamic the car is, because of unfinished running in. It feels the engine is still factory-numb.

Fourth impression - Skoda engineers have fitted the car with tens of practical solutions (not confuse for gadgets).

No more impressions so far, since from Wednesday on I have resisted the temptation to use the car purposelessly, so it stays parked in the garage, waiting for a longer journey to my in-laws in Sieradz (due tomorrow). No photos since the car belongs to my employer, do not look out for it on WN plates - PY ones are in use.

Belgorod engulfed in warfare

Since the beginning of the russian invasion to Ukraine, the attacked country wages a defensive war. In simple words, it has fought in its own territory (defined as internationally recognised borders in place until early 20214), but has not attacked the enemy’s land. Such approach gave a clear picture who had trespassed whose territory, but at some stage of war turned out to be insufficient to tip the scales towards the one we keep our fingers crossed for.

In the past days, with unhidden delight, I have kept track of destruction wrecked to the empire of evil. Each demolition of an oil refinery is a proper blow to the russian economy. Decreased supplies of fuels dent the country’s revenues (less money on armaments), impair transport as well as contribute to shortages of energy, which are detrimental to the military factories. Every day I watch the shelling of the city of Belgorod located close the Ukrainian border. This area of russia is currently war-ridden and residents who have not decided to flee are experiencing a bit of what the tormented Ukraine has endured for over the last 2 years.

Currently also the civilian infrastructure in russia is being destroyed, civilians in putin’s land are wounded and killed. Call me a scoundrel, but I could not care less. That accursed nation has to pay the price for all the evil its president is doing. Tactically, the strategy of attacking the invader’s area prompts the russian army to retreat to guard its lands, giving some relief from warfare to Ukraine. Such strategy also buys time and defers the probably inevitable confrontation between NATO and russia.

Speaking of the imminent war, I still believe with proper deterrents in place, russia might hold back from attacking any NATO country. But to make it happen, NATO countries need to get their act together to rebuild their military power (depleted by aids to Ukraine) and demonstrate their solidarity.

If the war indeed breaks out, the question is about targets and scale of warfare. Experts claim the enemy will still lack potential to trespass far and wide into NATO territories, but targeted shelling is perfectly conceivable. To paralyse life in large areas, russia only needs to destroy key elements of military and civilian infrastructure. Our homes might not be destroyed, but we might need to get used to conditions in which residents of Kiev had to live for several months, i.e. electricity outages, lost Internet connections, lack of warm water or heating.

Good times are not ahead. Even if the war fortunately does not break out, we as a mankind will need to make sacrifices to prevent the planet from becoming a hell due to global warming.

Z-generation

I suppose all readers know well what the term used in the title stands for. In case somebody needs to catch up, I divert to a dedicated wikipedia page.

Over the recent time young adults (nearly a decade younger than me, or even younger) have become nefarious for their distinctive approach towards work and towards life. Some hailed them "a snowflake generation", referring to their fragility and shortage of resistance to hardships of adult life.

Although the introductory paragraph might suggest I am critical towards Z-gen, I appreciate many foundations of their mindset. They fight for a work-life balance, in practice reaching out beyond the older generations' hollow declarations. They want to break out of chasing after money and material goods. Instead, they yearn for experiencing and spending time with nearest and dearest. They realise the treadmill of older generations gets them nowhere.

The above at first glance holds true, yet there is an inconsistency in how they want to achieve their goals. If I were to come up with only one critical remark towards Z-gen, I would say they do not understand causations. The pleasures they want to draw from life cost money, but unlike my peers, they refuse to toil away to earn it.

I have recently read a series of excellent articles (by enlightened conservatives from Klub Jagielloński) in which one of the authors posits generation Z is the natural effect of generations X and Y. A younger generation naturally contests the values of an older one. Generation Z however, wishes to freeride on the fruits of the previous generations' hard work.

I generally blame parents of Z-gen for how their offspring interact with the world. Also confining to one child only by many couples has done its bit. Parents of two or more children need to share their attention between them, while siblings need to mind and take care of one another. In a 2+1 family the focus is on the only child, who often is treated like the hub of the universe (and as an adult holds out for such treatment).

I also hold it against Z-gen's ancestors that current youngsters are not taught how to deal with criticism and lack a sense of responsibility. Children should learn from their own mistakes and from early years realise, to a moderate extent, there are prices to be paid for misdeeds. A dose of humility, when confronted with someone else's wisdom and subsequent ability to admit one's mistakes would definitely come in useful too.

In the era of affluence parents tend to give children too much, often to make up for too little time or attention dedicated to their offspring. Such upbringing does not teach youngsters they need to work hard to deserve something.

Besides, far too much protection from the cruelty of the nasty world is given. Suffering is an indispensable part of life and children should be slowly tamed with it, to help them accept life is not a bed of roses. The sooner they realise it with wise aid of their parents, the less painful the clash with tribulations of the adult life will be.

I wonder what happens once the Z-gen take over as major part of the labour force and once they begin to take up managerial position. The economic growth might slow down, however with the benefit to the planet, so such prospect is not entirely gloomy.

A residential property - what makes it a good dwelling?

In the previous post I attempted to unravel factors which impact attractiveness of a property's location. As a follow-up to those musings, I complement them with thoughts on features of a specific dwelling, which make it a comfortable place to inhabit.

Layout is the key, I would respond, if somebody asked me about only one characteristic to be taken into consideration. The term, nevertheless is broad is could be broken down into a few sub-features I pay attention to.

Shape of rooms determines their functionality. A possible square-like rectangles are preferable. I am not fond of hexagons, triangles, half-circles and the likes. Tram-like rectangles also do not add to practicality of an interior.

Most people appreciate natural daylight at home, hence reasonably large windows, orientation of rooms against cardinal poinst and lack of nearby buildings which obscure the sun play a vital role in choosing a flat. I am of the opinion too much sunlight in summer might be cracked down on with blind rollers, while insufficient sunlight cannot be made up for. My own preference would be to have a living room with windows facing south and/or west, kitchen to the east and/or north, while for bedrooms I have no clear preference, albeit I lean towards getting up with the sun, so I tilt towards eastern exposure.

With respect to the layout, one of major questions is whether to have kitchen as a separate room or to make it a part of a dining or living room, often with limited access to daylight (no dedicated window). I see drawbacks of both solutions, but lean towards a separate room with a table for daily dining. Nevertheless in crampy dwelling a kitchen combined with a living space appears to be the most reasonable choice.

Before COVID-19 the optimum number of rooms (in Poland we count rooms, unlike in the UK, where bedrooms are counted) was equal to the number of inhabitants, e.g. a dwelling suitable for a 2+2 family would consist of a living room and 3 bedrooms. These days, when people work from home, one could argue more space is needed to fit a dedicated desk, yet not necessarily in a separate room, such needs could be met by larger bedrooms too.

A storey on which a dwelling is located does matter too. The higher you live, the more sunlight and the less noise you get. I am not fond of ground floors and last floors. I actually do not mind neighbours above me, but the prospects of heating up or leaking roof would not encourage me to live on the top storey. Also the lack of lift on higher storeys is a nuisance. It is healthy to take the staircase, however I prefer it to be a choice, not a must.

The last, yet quite important to me element are amenities outside a dwelling:
- a balcony or a terrace (to hang out in warmer half of the year),
- a basement (to store tyres, bikes and other stuff not most desirable at home) and
- a garage (no need to mention the comfort of having a vehicle protected from the elements of weather).

Again, the good features a property has, the more expensive it is. Needless to say, comfort of living has its price.

A residential property - what makes it well-located

After a note on the prospects of the property market for Poland, some random musings over features a comfortable dwelling should have. I split my considerations into two posts, with the next one about the very property characteristics and today's post focusing on location only.

Experts in unison claim location is the core driver and property intrinsic value, since it cannot be subject to makeovers or refurbrishments. Valuation of a location might be triggered by changes in surrounding areas, which are beyond a property holder's control.

A good location for most people means access to transport links, including reliable public transport, paved roads in the countryside, lack of traffic jams or dual carriageway in the (not too close) vicinity. Commute times to workplaces and schools are usually the best benchmark for one's individual preference, however they might change over time (one day children finish school, you may change a job or your office might be relocated).

For me a decent location is the one where I am not car-dependent. Trips to work and getting about town should be convenient with public transport (cheap, reliable, frequently running), by bike or on foot. I am not giving up on motoring, yet the car should wait its turn for longer trips outside Warsaw and for situations when it is indispensable.

While living next to one of busier streets in Ursynów, with 4 lanes in both directions and drivers tending to speed through a section just outside my window, I got sensitive to noise. When buying a next property (most probably a bigger flat), I will strive to avoid dwelling where the level of traffic noise increases drastically after opening a window. Same goes about the air quality. In Warsaw, despite traffic-generated air pollution it is still far better than on the outskirts or in provincial Poland, where folks still incinerate whatever cheap they can to heat their houses.

Although online shopping is getting more popular, avoiding visits in grocery shops and supermarkets is impossible. A well-equipped shop in which most or all everyday needs can be met, located within walking distance from home is a vital determinant of a proper location.

Green areas - parks, forests, meadows in the vicinity are definitive upsides, but trees and grass instead of paved areas in the immediate neighbourhood appear equally important, especially when they give shelter from more and more frequent summer heat.

Needless to say each of us has amenities appreciated within walking distance from home. These include nursery and primary schools, bakeries, restaurants, hairdressers, health centres, community centres, playgrounds, swimming pools, gyms, libraries, craftsmen. The infrastructure for comfortable daily life also defines what the note is about.

Last, but not least (note the phase has been overused in essays written during high-school English classes), the housing density matters. It is not a pleasure to see your neighbour's dwelling from your window, not to mention other buildings take away sunlight, especially in autumnal and wintry months, when it is most yearned for.

Property prices generally tend to incorporate the factors above, but they are subject to fads. Some districts are considered prestigious, others unattractive, despite having all makings of a decent location. Some does of cool head and not following the crowd might help find a superior price-to-quality trade-off when searching for a place of residence.

Two years past the invasion

2 years and 1 days past the day the russian army launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, I am looking back at my coverage of those days. For some time I have not been an ardent blogger, but I carry on to save my thoughts for posterity and for myself. Those first days of war were a shock. Until recently majority of us got accustomed to the cruelty behind Poland's eastern border, especially since for months fights on the front were not moving on.

Currently there are more and more reports on scales tipped towards the invaders and military intelligence notes telling despite its failure in the Ukraine, Russia is slowly preparing for a war against NATO, which might break out in 3 to 5 years.

Politicians from countries neighbouring on russia began to speak openly about the eventuality of a war. Those at the biggest peril are:
- Sweden (not a NATO member, the country has not experienced war since 1815),
- Finland (a NATO member since April 2023, badly tainted by Soviets during WW2, having the longest border strip with russia in Europe),
- Norway (remember it borders russia at the northern edge of the continent),
- Baltic countries (used to be a part of the soviet empire for half a century, thus being a natural target),
- Poland (russia's everlasting enemy as a matter of principle) and
- Moldova (a god-forsaken land between Ukraine and Romania).

Preparations for the war should move from a verbal realm into actions, especially military training and manufacturing. It needs to be stressed Europe has supported Ukraine with its own military resources, but over that time effort to rebuild Europe's depleted defence capacity have not been taken. Several countries have run out of their stocks of ammunition or military vehicles, thus NATO's ability to ward off an attack is impaired. Even if the armaments serve a purpose of a deterrent, they are worthwhile (a decade ago I would argue military spending is a waste of public money). Nevertheless the united Europe seems too sluggish. For many years EU countries have not managed too agree on ceasing to move clocks back and forth and switching to daylight saving time, so will they be able to get their act together, especially if for Western Europe the russian soldiers are thousands kilometres away.

Putin's army did not conquer Ukraine, but incurred severe losses in the battlefields. Human-wise, its resources are limited, yet sending millions of conscripts to die in a warfare has never been a problem to the uncivilised empire. Resourse-wise, military manufacturings is running at full blast and there are signs the russian economy has been switched into the military mode. Economic sanctions imposed on russia are bypassed (through countries such as Armenia or Kazakhstan), despite being cut off from modern technologies, russia is not on its knees.

Whatever fate Ukraine meets, Europe has to support it to help the evil invader bleed out there. There era of peace in Europe might soon be over, but let's buy time to defer the moments it goes down in history.

Currently the biggest threat lies in the USA, where the presidential election is due in less than 9 months. If the narcistic, unpredictable psychopat wins, Europe will have reasons to quake. NATO's power largely hinges upon the defence power its overseas ally.

The picture to the right is the cover most recent issue of "Wprost" weekly. Keeping fingers crossed for its poor predictive power, ley ot be contrary to its cartoonist's illustratory skills.

A demographic disaster?

With the recently released birth statistics in Poland we might easily admit the problem with ageing and declining population in my homeland is getting horrific.

As the graph with preliminary figures for 2023 shows, albeit the number of deaths is not rising (COVID-19 accelerated many deceases), the number of births is plummeting. Had it not been for migrants (predominantly Ukrainians), merely 252,000 infants would have been born last year. Actually the 252,000 thousand is the rough number of children born with the Polish citizenship.

The major reason for the number of births getting lower is the echo of the previous demographic wave, with a high of new births of 724,000 in 1983, but then decreasing gradually to around 350,000 in 2003. Since then for over a decade the number of births was getting higher, with some boost in 2017 put down to 500+ child allowance in place.

Within 6 years the number of birth, upon
adjustment for inflow of Ukrainians has gone down by more than 35%. Over that time fertility rate of women fell from nearly 1.5 to around 1.3, compared to 2.0 around 1990. Needless to say, if a country’s population is not about to dwindle, the rate should be slightly above 2.0 in mid-term.

Most (but not all) European countries are facing the same problem, yet in the Western Europe fertile migrants tend to make up for the shortfall of domestic births. The key reasons cited for the trend by both experts and home-grown specialists are:
1) a cultural and lifestyle shift in which raising a family is not the only option, but one of many, with decreasing social pressure for having children,
2) priority of career pursuit / convenience for many people (not only women),
3) shortage of mature male partners to women who would become responsible fathers participants in upbringing and household works,
4) housing problems, especially high property purchase and rental prices, compounded by lack of non-commercial accommodation alternatives,
5) financial insecurity,
6) lack of systemic support for parents wishing to combine professional duties with taking care of children.

Another problem, less often mentioned is that many couple confine themselves to one child only. Back at school, I was one of very, very few only children, with everyone around having siblings. With hindsight I see having a sister or a brother teaches empathy, sharing and social skills. A child which is not an only child quickly realises they are not a hub of the universe, but sadly, several “only childs” these days are brought up in such way. I am holding back from assessing parents choosing a 2+1 model (the motivations are the same as for declining overall fertility), but I see several drawbacks of such option.

To show the declining number of children per woman is not necessarily an option, let’s look at the example of Czech Republic, not a catholic nation, with wide access to abortion in early pregnancy. Surprising to the pro-life wackos, they do not have such problem as Poland. Reasons why our southern neighbours have done so well have been listed by Łukasz Pietrzak on his X profile:
1) the highest number of in-vitro inseminations per citizen in the EU,
2) low unemployment and higher job security,
3) a well-developed network of public nursery schools (low-cost daily care for children aged 3 – 6),
4) a young-parent allowance is paid to each parent until a child turns 4 (helps combine professional duties and parenthood),
5) 100% salary equivalent is paid during a maternity leave,
6) generous tax allowance for parents,
7) flexible labour market schemes for young parents, including part-time jobs and home office.
Some of the above are already in place in Poland, on others the Polish new government needs to work on. Given the overall cultural context of many youngsters ruling out parenthood altogether, it will partly go in vain, but if we look at the upsides, it will benefit the planet.

Property market in Poland – going bonkers indeed?

As prices of residential properties soared in a double-digit pace in Poland in recent months, pricing several first-time buyers out of the market, many wonder, whether the market is already red-hot, how big the imbalance of it is and where the property prices are heading. I will try to come up with a cool-headed analysis, with my judgements underpinned by 3Q2023 NBP and Amron-Sarfin reports (charts come thereof).

Looking at the past two decades, one sees property prices skyrocketed between 2005 and 2007, then levelled off on unsustainably high level, to decline by 20% - 25% in nominal terms by late 2012. For the next five years dwelling prices where in a slight uptrend, which began to accelerate in 2018. In nominal terms, peak levels from 2008 were hit over a decade later. The pandemic did not cool the market down, but the increasing interest rates did it in 2022. In nominal terms prices levelled off, but upon the inflationary adjustment, they fell by 15% - 20% within one year. Then in the second half of 2023 prices increased again, driven by a generous mortgage subsidy programme…

Looking at the graph which shows how many square metres an average salary in major Polish cities would buy, one could infer the market has not gone crazy. The underlying analysis by NBP has some critical drawbacks:
1) salaries are gross-of-tax, which fails to take into account changes in taxation (Polski Ład), which benefitted those who earn less, but hit the middle class,
2) it does not take into account costs of living, especially:
- a portion of net-of-tax wages need spent on payments to landlord by those who reside in rented flats,
- rising costs of basic expenses, such as dwelling upkeep costs and nutrition.

As I coincide with the conclusion dwellings were most affordable in 2016 and 2017, the uptick in affordability in 1H2023 is doubtful given that salary growth did not catch up with rising costs of living around that time.

Analysts from Amron-Sarfin have come up with an enhanced housing availability index, which takes into account more factors, including purchasing power of disposable income and access to mortgage lending. According to their measures, the dream of an own residential property was harder to come true already in 2021 and by the second half of 2022 it declined to levels unseen since a decade. Currently an ordinary man finds it as difficult to buy a flat, as they did in 2011.

Arguably, the property market in Poland is not in a most buyer-friendly shape, but let’s look where it might be heading.

The factors which are likely to drive property prices up are:
1) ongoing first-time buyers schemes extended recently by the government – in Warsaw given the tight criteria they will not spoil the market badly,
2) overall conviction of market participants that prices will go up, turning into self-fulfilling prophecy (this means bubble-like conditions),
3) stringent technical requirements residential buildings from the primary market must meet – they elevate construction costs and jack up property prices on secondary market too,
4) supply constraints – as property developers still have it uphill to get the planning permission.

On the other hand, the market is facing some headwinds, which makes good news for buyers:
1) interest rates remain on a high level and prospects for a material monetary loosening are weak,
2) rental yields are already low – current net income from dwelling subletting is these days lower than on a bank deposit or from government bonds, while risk and liquidity of property investments is incomparably higher,
3) the long cycle is drawing to a close, as examples of countries where prices began to rise earlier than in Poland (Germany, Scandinavia) show,
4) more and more buyers are priced out of the market, which dents the demand.

I have no bloody idea which group of factors will have a bigger impact on the market in real terms (note property price growth below in the inflation rate is an actual decline), but there are several solutions, which might let ordinary people have their housing needs met.

Firstly, let’s build more dwellings, yet without allowing for pathological solutions (which should be theatrically verified by the free market, but under conditions of constrained housing availability, such mechanism does not work).

Secondly, levy taxes on multiple residential property owners (those in possession of more than two properties), which would be progressive (higher tax rates for each next dwelling) and  which would hit harder uninhabited (including not sublet) dwellings. This would curb speculative purchases, which have done a lot of harm to the market (a flat bought for speculative purposes is empty, i.e. not rented and a speculator bets they will gain only from value growth, which is typical for a bubble-like market).

Thirdly, increase protection of landlords – sadly tenants are overly protected by the law in Poland and hence many property owners are afraid of subletting their flats. With a higher supply of flats, rents would go down, which would mean demand from investors would decrease and properties would become more affordable to those who seek their own roof over their heads.

Questions unanswered (in random order)

Is it meant to last or was it bound to fail?

Do doubts from the very beginning bode well?

If it could fall apart so many times, what keeps it together?

How do I know when downs prevail over ups (or the other way round)?

Do we complement each other actually?

Is the balance between giving and taking struck?

Haven’t I forced those common goals upon?

Is carefree life a value itself?

Where do you yourself life-wise in five years? Is it a part of any plan or do you just flow with the tide?

When can you say a human is emotionally mature?

Is being an adult overwhelming?

A career, earning and spending, dog-breeding, sport, consuming, chasing pleasures of life – is it fine enough? Can I seek depth in it? Can I chase sense init?

Does parenthood alter a human? Does it deprive them of freedom? Is it being slowly regained as offspring grow up?

How much patience does it take to tolerate a life companion? Was he right to say a fellow (wo)man will always f**k you up, so you need to love them to bits to put up with them?

Is sticking to values and goals more important than continuity of a relationship?

Why do people get stuck in mediocre set-ups? Out of convenience or out of fear?

How long will she be deferring that decision? By the time she lives it up fair enough? By the time she earns more money? By the time she carefully thinks it over? By the time she grows mature? By the time it’s too late?

Are we playing for time?

How fed up could I get to realise there can be a better way?

Can a mere fascination be considered infidelity?

Can fatigue of being taken make a man act like a single?

When indifference become a warning sign?

Is a frank conversation overrated?

Is she still a girl scared of responsibilities adulthood involves?

Does she hope it gets too late and I will accept it?

How much space is between a perfect match and a perfect mismatch?

Am I picking nits or are we arguing about elementary stuff?

Are we just passing time?

What holds me back from moving ahead?

What brings out a fear of taking a wrong decision?

How long can we carry on like this?

…and many more…